UNB Physics Department Seminar-FR

Event date(s): February 13, 2025
Time(s): 01:15 PM - 02:15 PM
Category: Fredericton
Location: Fredericton

CHASM:  Canadian High Arctic Scintillation Model

Presented by Melika Bazargani

Abstract: In the dynamic and ever-changing environment of the Canadian Arctic, GPS scintillation activity presents a significant challenge to modern navigation and communication systems. Our innovative approach leverages a Bayesian inference framework to forecast these scintillations with remarkable precision. By integrating mechanistic processes into statistical inference, we address high-dimensional problems, non-linearity, and stochasticity with finesse. Utilizing data from the Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Network (CHAIN) collected between 2008 and 2024, our model employs a variety of predictors, including solar wind conditions, interplanetary magnetic field parameters, geomagnetic indices, and ionospheric plasma dynamics. We define outcome classes based on GPS scintillation index values, construct prior probability distributions, and utilize real-time data to calculate posterior probabilities, enabling us to make accurate predictions. Initial results are promising, as the model successfully captures daily variations and sudden spikes in scintillation indices, showcasing its potential for precise prediction capabilities. Looking forward, we aim to refine the model with higher spatial resolution and incorporate real-time data to enhance its forecasting accuracy further. This innovative approach promises to mitigate the impacts of scintillation on critical infrastructure in the Canadian Arctic, paving the way for more reliable navigation and communication systems.

Building: IUC Physics Building

Room Number: P204