Albert
M. Stevens, Seminar September 29, 1998
The
This presents
major challenges to all sectors of the economy and our current way of life.
The transport
sector emissions are expected to grow by 26% above 1990 levels by 2010.
This means that a reduction of 26 + 6 = 32% if the target is to be met.
The number of
people that effect the reduction will be greater than now. It means that
each must reduce their average GHG emissions by more than a third of current
levels.
Other sectors are
similar.
I will concentrate
on the transport sector because it is typical of the nature and magnitude of
the changes that will be necessary to approach the target.
The dilemmas
arise because:
There
are many other effects that raise doubts. There are few reasons to be
encouraged that we can meet the targets. We can produce the technology to
do it if we are prepared to pay.
There is no
painless magic bullet that will let us do it. We cannot be sure that the world
will afford the socio-economic price of stabilizing GHG emissions.
The above list is
sufficient to illustrate why we should be sceptical that the GHG targets will
be met.
A major reason for
scepticism is captured in the following quote from John Goddard, a man that
makes his living as a world traveller and lecturer: (many others share the
sentiment)
"I think
the most appalling thing I see is the chronic indifference of the world leaders
to our critical problems of overpopulation and pollution. I'm not thinking of
any individual leader, because they're all guilty of concentrating on profit
and economic development. . . . our world is overpopulating at the rate of 85
million a year, and yet world leaders don't seem to realize the monumental
threat imposed by human fertility . . . The future looks pretty grim. Egypt is
bursting at the seams with 52 million, and yet there is no serious effort to
curb that population. Where are you going to put the people when the population
starts doubling every twenty-five or thirty years?
The following are
some notes in answer to a request for input to the recent federal initive to
develop policies that will help meet the GHG target:
Some Suggestions
for reducing Greenhouse Gases; A. M. Stevens
for: Sept. 18, 1998 meeting of TAC (Transportation Assn. of
General:
For simplicity the
following discussion is confined to CO2 production. We have to be
careful not to produce excessive amounts of other undesirables such as NOX.
We also must keep lots of greenery around to recycle the CO2 back to O2.
Reducing emissions
is similar to the efforts to reduce dependence on imported oil in the mid 70's.
THE MAJOR
DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE PROBLEM WON'T GO AWAY WHEN OIL PRICES DROP. THE MEASURES
TAKEN HAVE TO PERSIST. THERE SHOULD BE NO GOING BACK TO THE
The task is
formidable, but the efforts to reduce smoking provides some encouragement that
once fashionable behaviour can be made unpopular.
There
are many sources of CO2 but the one that is paramount in modern TRANSPORTATION
is the consumption of hydrocarbon fuel by internal combustion engines.
Lowering CO2
production generally means LOWERING FUEL CONSUMPTION
How do we lower
CO2 production by transport vehicle engines?
Fuels such as alcohol, natural gas and light petroleum fractions have higher
hydrogen content. They also have lower heat and therefor energy content per
unit volume or mass. Higher hydrogen content fuels require changes in i.c.
engines to obtain the same power output.
The utilities should provide the energy from sources that do not involve
combustion of carbon, and hydrocarbon fuels. Onboard fuel cell production of
electricity is another contender. Most fuel cells use hydrocarbon fuels. They
will produce some CO2 emissions.
Some
initial steps for change:
The obvious step
toward eventual improvement is to tighten up, and enforce more stringent
standards for acceptable emissions (fuel consumption) for automobiles licensed
in
These have to be
phased in over a period of years to give the manufacturers and owners time to
respond. This can be started right away by the Dept. of the Environment Motor
Vehicle Emission Standards group.
Such standards
have to be enforced by the provinces, so they have to be involved and
co-operative. The standards have to be enforced on the whole licensed fleet.
New vehicles are now regulated by the CMVSS. However the CMVSS provides a good
model for how a broader set of standards can be constructed and implemented.
A second step
would determine the permissible fuel consumption for different sizes and
missions of commercial vehicles.
It is well known
in the trucking industry that significant fuel savings can be achieved by using
'small block' engines. These require the operator to be more active in using
the transmission and marginally increase trip times.
Once acceptable
power to GVM ratios are known these should be included in with the other truck
licensing standards. This is an activity that fits with the previous work of
Weights and Dimensions Standards. How to enforce such standards is unknown at
this time. Work could begin on this aspect right away.
Another activity
will be to review the Road and Street geometric and other standards to improve
the fuel efficiency of the future highway and street system.
Poor signal timing
and excessive use of stop signs are obvious targets for improvement. Several
interchange designs include long travel distances, etc.
Better signal
timing should be possible given the progress made in sensors, communications
and computers. The problem is reasonably well understood but is expensive to
implement, maintain and update.
Someone should
review urban planning design standards to improve journey distance
requirements. The obvious improvements are to density and lot size standards.
This should be
looked at on a national basis and model standards developed. The major problems
are to overcome the objections to the 'one size fits all' approach such as
existed with the old CMHC rules which were aimed at minimum's. The new rules
need to be aimed at maximums, or acceptable norms.
Higher speeds
encourage higher fuel consumption. There should be hard data developed on the
fuel consumption and trip times for fixed and variable length trips over a
range of speeds by contemporary passenger and commercial vehicles.
Future
determination of fuel consumption information developed for new vehicles may be
possible to disaggregate and recombine to produce the kind of data that would
show the effect of speed on the current fleet in use in sample jurisdictions.
These data are
required to add credibility to the speed control regulations that will be
required to meet the emission levels proposed. Higher speeds also encourage
longer trip distances.
The 55 mph speed
limit imposed by the Carter administration in the
All the schemes
that were developed during the mid 70's to conserve fuel should be brought back
and policies developed to encourage their use. There are hosts of these
including car pooling, multiple car occupancy lanes, bus priority lanes etc.
The airline
industry developed several strategies to conserve fuel in the 70's. These
should be applied vigorously and new schemes developed. Older, less fuel
efficient aircraft should be scrapped, not sold to another carrier or country
to continue their polluting ways.
The effects of
trying to regulate by competitive forces should be critically reviewed. E.g.,
it is obvious that overlapping services on low traffic routes in the
Every group that
holds meetings scattered across the country should be encouraged to reduce the
number of such meetings by at least a third. These can be replaced by more extensive
use of electronic communication
Similarly the mass
of paper should be kept to a minimum and electronic copy substituted where
possible. The RDC should make an effort to be a leader in these directions.
This will be unpopular with the participants and the airlines. It should
however have the side effect of reducing travel expenses.
Comments
to: amsmes@nb.sympatico.ca
End
to date: 070421, ams