The
ownership of one or more private vehicles by a large segment of the population
must be accepted. Included are passenger cars, light trucks, small vans, and
multi-purpose vehicles for highway use that are under about 4000 kg in gross
vehicle mass. In addition there are large numbers of motor cycles and in some
countries motor scooters. In
The rate of ownership depends on many
factors. The major factor is available personal resources. Indications are that
ownership may approach or exceed 0.5 vehicles per adult person. For this
reason, motor vehicles on roads and streets is and will be the most important
and extensive means of mechanized transportation in rural and urban areas.
The dominance of motor vehicles on
roads and streets is strengthened by the efficiency and effectiveness of trucks
and busses, especially those with diesel engines. In most urban and many rural
areas some form of taxi cab or small for hire passenger vehicle also
supplements the personally owned and operated ones.
This means that transport modes which
compete with private automobiles must not only provide service cheaper than the
incremental cost of driving but also must be at least as fast, convenient and
safe as the vehicle which will be displaced. At present in many instances this
seems impossible in the context of current trends of urban area development and
activity patterns.
Times for trips up to about 200 km are
as good or better than trips by air that require motor vehicle connections from
airports. For many trip lengths passenger cars are more cost effective when
there is a passenger load in addition to the driver. Small diesel powered
passenger cars with full passenger loads are the most fuel efficient form of
passenger transport available.
Since the mid 1970's passenger car fuel
efficiency has doubled. The technology exists to double it again. Further
improvements beyond this limit may not be practical. Effective alternatives to
petroleum fueled internal combustion engines as the means of on board power
have not yet been developed. Work to perfect effective alternative power
continues.
No replacement capable of matching or
exceeding the present or potential capabilities of self propelled wheeled
vehicles i.e. automobiles is in sight. It is in fact difficult to visualize
such a device which is not in fact just a refinement of some form of the
automobile as it exists today.