N.B. forests could face drastic change—scientists
Research suggests softwood forests and moose would suffer from warmer winters
New Brunswick's official tree, the balsam fir, could vanish. Say goodbye, too, to the Canadian lynx, whose wide furry paws depend on a nice blanket of snow. Instead, count on seeing the sturdy red oak and the red-bellied woodpecker more often, as they enjoy the increasingly warm weather.
This is just some of the speculation in a new report by three researchers who canvassed more than 40 local climatologists, biologists and other scientists on ecological changes they expect to see in the province by 2050 and 2100.
'A lot of the stuff you hear about climate change is about polar bears, or desertification in China or the Arctic ice cap,' said Tom Beckley, a professor of forestry and environmental management at the University of New Brunswick, who lead the study with master's student Arielle DeMerchant and consultant Shawn Dalton. 'The point of this was to canvass the local scientists, who are doing the local work, about local changes. How is it going to play out here in New Brunswick?' Commissioned by the province through a $28,000 grant from the environmental trust fund, the climate change report asked dozens of government and university scientists in anonymous, one-on-one interviews what people should expect to see in New Brunswick's land-based and freshwater ecosystems. The report also included focus groups with researchers in Fredericton and Moncton as a followup.
Many of the scientists warned that their speculations were just that—not science, which depends on observable facts, but an informed guess about what would happen in the future. Some even refused to participate.
'It was a little bit like dentistry trying to extract any strong opinion from these people,' Beckley said. 'They were very, very cautious about what they wanted to say. They wanted to stick close to their data and only what they know about. But we wanted to challenge them to speak more broadly about how the subject that they study—whether it was a particular tree species or critter or what have you—would likely be affected.' There was general consensus, for instance, that the climate was changing in the province, with wetter and warmer winters, and hotter, drier summers, although many of the biologists warned the data was unpredictable and a few degrees difference in temperature could vastly skew their predictions.
They were asked, however, to assume the four climatologists were right with their assumptions.
What it would mean for New Brunswick's celebrated Acadian forest, which is right in the middle of the zone between leafy and evergreen trees, is an influx of newer plants and creatures and an exodus of the old ones. Creatures that prefer the province's coolest weather—such as moose—would fare worse, while those that enjoy the warmer temperatures, like white-tailed deer, could thrive.
'Relative to other places, like in Western Canada or the southwestern U.S., we're fairly well situated in terms of the pace of change and our ability to adapt to it,' Beckley said. 'The Acadian forest is naturally diverse and fairly robust. Slowly the boreal type species and the conifer-dominated stands will be more stressed, but we probably have time to get through a full rotation of the trees out there.' Trees that favour northern climates, such as balsam fir, white spruce, tamarack and white birch would succumb to diseases, insect infestation, fire outbreak and storm blow-down. More southerly species, like the white pine, red oak and red spruce would benefit from the climatic changes.
In terms of insects, more gypsy moth and forest tent caterpillar invasions were expected, along with future outbreaks of balsam woolly algid, which ravages fir trees.
Among freshwater fish, salmon and brook trout would continue to decline, with introduced species like small-mouth bass, muskellunge and chain pickerel increasing their territory.
Among the mammals, lynx would likely be displaced by bobcats. The deer mouse and red squirrel could proliferate, thanks to an extended vegetation season and an abundance of cones and ground vegetation.
The songs in the woods would change too. Bicknell's thrush and Grey jays would likely suffer, while mourning doves, northern cardinals, turkey vultures, northern mockingbird and pine warbler could thrive. Birds of prey, however, might have a harder time with less snow, where they seek and spot their meals.
The scientists in general said it was important to protect existing species, but they also argued it made more sense to try to stop the climate from changing in the first place. This would mean reducing the amount of greenhouse gases pumped into the atmosphere. '
There is an argument that if we don't allow the west-to-east oil pipeline to New Brunswick, it will just go somewhere else,' Beckley said. 'But doing micromanagement or mitigation while you're just pumping more carbon into the atmosphere is a silly strategy.' The findings have several other implications. The province's impressive record on forest fire fighting would be put to the test as the summer heat and spread of wildfires became more common. The forest industry's preference for single species stands of softwood would probably have to change, as hardwood species thrive, offering the industry an opportunity to refocus their product lines.
'All the scientists would, not surprisingly, say, 'We need more science,' to know what to do,' Beckley said. 'But as self-serving as that sounds, it's true. For instance, alien invasive species and new insect pests being introduced is very unpredictable. So it's important that we keep close scrutiny of things like that.'
Story by John Chilibeck, Legislature Bureau
Photo by: Stephen MacGillivray, The Daily Gleaner
© 2013 Fredericton Daily Gleaner 04/18/2013
